Overall, EU poultry production is expected to improve partially in the second half of the year, decreasing by only -0.9% in 2021 compared to 2020. Provided that the demand from catering services returns to normal and the impact of avian influenza will be little or little. Production may increase in 2022 (+ 1% / 2021), especially due to the increase in exports from the European Union. EU poultry consumption is expected to remain stable in 2021 and return to moderate growth in 2022 (+ 1.2% / 2021) at the expense of pork.
Average broiler prices in the EU peaked in mid-June which is normal for the poultry meat market and has since declined in line with the normal seasonal trend. In mid-September, they dropped to € 196/100 kg, but still well above the 2016-2020 average.
Many of the EU's trading partners have national or regional bans related to avian influenza, which are worsening export performance on an annual basis. The UK's decision to postpone the introduction of SPS checks at the border until July 1, 2022 (instead of October 1, 2021 as originally planned) should bring some comfort to operators exporting to the UK. We can already hear the British fears of what the stores will look like before Christmas.
In the first half of 2021, EU exports decreased by 150,000 tonnes year on year (-13%). Lower exports to the Philippines (-61%), Great Britain (-15%), Hong Kong (-68%) and South Africa (-54%) - total: -215,000 t - was only partially offset by increased exports to Ghana (+ 26%) and Ukraine (+ 26%) - together: +38,000 t. EU exports are expected to decline in 2021 (-5% / 2020), before stabilizing in 2022, subject to gradual lifting the prohibitions related to avian influenza.